Tuesday, August 29, 2006
Labor Day Specials
August, normally a dull month, was anything but uneventful. On the New York "C" market, we saw a rally from close to yearly low prices up to highs of 1.12 on the spot month and above 1.20 on the back months.
And kind of unexpected, and potentially very very scary, we had our first genuine Brazilian frost scare in years. (temperature of 32 degrees taken in Pocos de Caldas)....an inconvenient truth... I quess a frost can still happen.
During August we also saw a tightness in robusta lead a rally in New York. Adding fuel to the fire was the uncertain status of tons robusta warehoused in Trieste.
I think if I had taken a poll in July: prices up or down in August? Most would have voted down.
Currently it is raining in Brazil and the market is selling lower. On the other hand, it is also the Hurricane season.
So as usual, there are factors which can influence prices both ways. John Cossette mentioned the other day a historical C market average of 1.06. It seems to me, to greatly simplify, buying coffee based on a C market close to 1.06, given the physical situation as we think we know it, is a pretty good bet.
Going into September, here's a list spot coffees we consider to be the cream of the Crop:
13905 Colombian 15+ Oporapa
13349 Costa Rican Hermosa Dota Tarrazu
12925 Ethiopian Yirgacheffe
12775 Ethiopian Special Prep Natural Sidamo
13777 Guatemalan SHB Huixoc
13852 Kenya PB
12804 Mexican Organic Pluma Real
11271 Panama SHB Panamaria
13220 New Guinea Kimel A
13478 Sumatra FT Organic
13421 Ethiopian MC Process Natural Sidamo Decaf
13959 Komodo SWP Decaf
13312 Sumatra Ft Organic RS Decaf
Cuping notes and futures: The preshipment samples for this year's Organic Timors are very good and the shipments are selling fast.
Also, we have one, and only one, container of new crop Ruvuma PB for this winter.... This is the best Tanzanian PB we get... Only 300 bags... You know what to do and when to do it.
Happy Labor Day!