Friday, October 19, 2007
Spring in Cerrado
Spring has sprung in Brazil and all speculative eyes are watching the flowering which has begun. Last week, after two months of hot dry weather, the C market rose to 1.40. This week there has been enough rain (and a forecast of more) to cause a 15 cent per lb. retreat, back to a 1.25 in the December position.
We have not really seen this kind of volatility for a long time, and it makes me feel kind of like we have been hibernating for five years. This extreme price movement was not all that unusual for many years before the “coffee crisis” and market collapse to 49 cents.
As supply and demand come into balance, and with the now greater-than-ever demand for specialty coffee, we think good buying is going to take a lot more effort and knowledge. We suspect we’ll see more of these big price moves, and we know the availability of some coffees is going to get tighter.
Though there is rain in Brazil now, we have a way to go before any assumptions should be made about next year’s Brazil crop. Looking at the situation, the best we can offer is to say the upside risk is far greater than the downside.
Here is a guide to what we consider our best spot coffees as of 10/19:
16633 Sulawesi Toraja G-1
16140 Colombian Huila La Argentina
16527 Colombian El Carmen del Atrato (Choco)
16501 Colo Cauca Especial15422 Guat Organic San Marcos
15507 Guatemalan SHB El Injerto
16499 Panama SHB Las Victorias
15204 Peru FT Organic Cochepampa
14973 New Guinea Kimel X
14977 New Guinea Kimel PB
16193 Rwanda 100% Bourbon
12950 El Salvador Cerro de las Ranas
16177 Nicaraguan Dipilto Royal Select Water Decaf
16656 Espresso Blend Royal Select Water Decaf
16175 New Guinea Kimel Royal Select water Decaf